In this case the MBA is more expensive than the refurb MBP.
Also, the MBP is available this week and the MBA not until next week, and after putting this off for so many months years I know that I’ll want any new Mac immediately.
My preference is the MBP for the ports, this display and the performance.
I’d go for the MBP but only because I know very well that my workloads do not require more than 16GB and also I get the additional SSD space from an external SSD.
No matter how long you wait nothing will change. I’m what I consider a “typical” computer user, I use office apps and rarely do anything more than crop a photo or adjust lighting. I will never need more than my 8gb M1 MacBook Air.
What do you anticipate needing in the next three years? If you really need an upgrade that’s what I would purchase now.
I almost bought a new MB Air M3 on Prime days but my current one works fine and we are doing No Buy July. Maybe next year. When my current MBA will be 5.