This is an interesting read, and I do not consider it clickbait. I think there is merit in the assessment of Apple in this article. In fact, the recent release of Creator Studio would seem to buttress the article’s argument.
I categorized this under software for lack of a better alternative.
Thoughts?
“Still, Apple’s financial center of gravity has started to move from “sell the box” to “monetize the environment,” which is exactly how mature platform companies compound. The most consequential Apple products now aren’t always the ones you can hold. They’re policies, defaults, and distribution. The magic shows up in the margins. Now, Apple doesn’t need every customer to feel delighted, it just needs them to feel locked in — and to keep paying. Microsoft did this, too, in its own way. Office wasn’t just software; it was the workflow itself. Once a platform owns your habits, it can sell convenience and call it productivity. ”
Well, I suppose because I don’t want Apple to become another Microsoft. I used MS products and Wintel machines for twenty years. I did so in the context of large organizational purchases and private use. It was not pleasant. So, this issue is of intellectual and personal interest.
I’ve never compared Apple to Microsoft, Microsoft is a software company and Apple is hardware and services. I’ve always looked at Apple being more like IBM. It started out as a hardware company and today hardware only brings in around 30% of its revenue.
Shannon Carroll’s article brings up some good questions, and while her article today seems to tell a different story, I think AI, ever increasing hardware prices, and some emerging technology could shake things up.
The rumors of Apples demise are greatly exaggerated, we note as Tim Cook deposits $42.1BN of cold hard cash in the nearest Silicon Valley Bank Branch.
My wife who loves her iPhone but is never eager to upgrade, upgraded a few months ago after her iPhone 13 Pro Max camera died. She got an 17 Pro Max and is obsessed with the phone and iOS 26, etc. And she has zero patience for any software UI changes.
This is just one anecdote, of course. But it says something to me. Despite what this article reports regular iPhone, Mac, and iPad users LOVE their devices and love using them. The tech journalist/influencer group is loud, but they seldom have an accurate pulse on Apple consumers.
I think Apple is doing just fine. Every time I have to touch the Microsoft Outlook app on iOS and iPad, I know Apple is still light years ahead of the pack.
The company is still fun and still does a great job of marrying lifestyle with tech and lets people enjoy using their devices.
I agree with @Bmosbacker, though, I definitely don’t want Apple to become Microsoft. I think the company won’t.
I agree, but will they feel the same when the least expensive iPhone is $1000? $1200? More? According to some reports, just about everyone in the world that can afford an iPhone, has one.
As a parent of two Pre-Teens who think being a YouTuber is the pinnacle of job accomplishments I’m generally happy with the direction of Apple. There’s always the pressure for Apple to conform to what the Journalists want (which is easy to understand and explain technology that’s mature).
I haven’t even delved into the catalog offerings of Apple TV+ but I have enjoyed Ted Lasso, Silo, F1 & Pluribus. They are selecting great shows.
AI - They have wisely sidestepped the trainwreck of trying to “win” the Foundation Model wars. Apple’s golden egg here is a comprehensive and effective Private Cloud Compute. They only need to care about AI that resides firmly in the consumer space. The next 5 years will establish what AI functionality in our OS and Apps are generally useful.
What I’d love to see is.
Ecosystem - I’m lucky that we have an entire household that uses iOS devices. I want Apple to flesh out more benefits for Family Sharing. Let me add on additional members for a nominal fee. Let me administer routine tasks like upgrades and configurations for devices. Screen Time needs to be more powerful.
Wallet - Let me create virtual Credit Cards for my children that expense money (allowance, rewards etc) that goes beyond Apple Pay Cash.
The Ghost of Gene Munster - I don’t think analysts are as correct as some believe but I “still” think about how nice an Apple branded HDTV would be. In dealing with numerous WiFi connectivity issues and clunky landing pages I still vastly prefer the Apple TV connected to a HDTV. I want to see more two way communication with what i’m watching and my ability to “pull” it into my Mac/iOS device.
I’ll stop here but I don’t think there’s a real danger of Apple becoming Microsoft. I think they’ve done some “off brand” things that don’t serve the user base but there’s a lot that can be done to bring the many elements they have together in an even more cohesive way.
“Still, Apple’s financial center of gravity has started to move from “sell the box” to “monetize the environment,”
This isn’t the start, this has been coming for a very long time. Apple’s Bread and butter will continue to be hardware, but Services revenue now tops iPad, Mac, and Wearables/Home all aded together. On top of this the profits from Services last quarter were about 75% profit.
It’s also worth pointing out that you can use Apple Hardware without being locked in, but it’s a choice to do so. Apple’s not locking anyone in.
True. I flew on Pan American Airlines, bought Compaq servers, and LPs at Tower Records. I even knew a woman who worked in the C-suite of a major corporation (290K employees) before “the turn of the century”. All these companies and many more are gone today.
Just the thought of using FB seemed unwise to me. So I never used it and wouldn’t be sad to see it become a footnote in wikipedia.
You have to ignore all the basic differences to conclude that Apple could ever evolve into Microsoft. But so many tech commentators still rely on cliches rather than thinking about what makes each company different. See also: the routine lumping of Google/Apple/Facebook and Amazon into “GAFA”, “Big Tech”, “the Big Four”, etc.
Very good point: How “inelastic” is the demand for iPhones. I think if the failure point is limited to prices set to high, that is easily fixed by Apple. It might decline to fix that problem if it emerges, but that’s fixable. I don’t think that’s entirely the same as what would be the greater risk: the platform becomes stable, locked in tradition, and Apple fails to pivot the platform in ways to keep it highly relevant to consumer wishes. I think that’s the bigger issue of this article and ones like it. That is actually a harder problem to solve if the company gets stuck this way, because it’s a combination of culture and, perhaps, over-confidence in its market position. Can the company avoid becoming “tone deaf.” That’s the part I think Apple can avoid and does not seem to be a path it’s heading down. I hope that I’m right.
I think both Apple and Microsoft may be becoming a new something, I just don’t know what it is. Started first with Microsoft, especially Windows 11. And this past year with Apple and Liquid Glass and freemium iWork.
With the wholesale move towards subscriptions the final shoe dropped. I always saw subscriptions as the death knell of the small Independent software developer. Only the larger vendors can sustain subscriptions. Not even Omnigroup can deliver a subscription of all of their software for what Microsoft charges for Office.
I’ve found the opportunities for other vendors are diminishing. Some of the nice photo apps that in years past I would have splurged on now get a “no thanks”. Sometimes the best way to combat subscription fatigue is the large sub that shuts the door on the noise of a hundred compeitors.
Nor should they have to (charge cheap) the product is worth what people will pay for it and Omni offer one time pricing or subscriptions. I’d pay for OmniFocus on a monthly basis if that was the only option. I wouldn’t pay a sub for all of their products as I don’t need or want any of the others. (Omnioutliner is interesting, but not enough for me to pay a sub for. a good mapping tool works better for me.)
Small independent developers can survive and indeed thrive with Subs, they couldn’t largely survive on one time purchases.
Niche products need to charge more to accommodate their smaller audiences.
The Verge is reporting that “. . . Microsoft is redirecting engineers to urgently fix Windows 11’s performance and reliability issues, aiming to halt the operating system’s death by a thousand cuts.”
Could 2026 may be a “Snow Leopard” year for Microsoft?
