what does our collective know about when those dates will be less that 6-8 weeks?
This is kind of like asking when the pandemic will be over.
It’s a complex (as in complexity) problem, which I don’t think anyone can make a strong prediction about.
From what I’ve read, things might ease up next year.
Some of the variables at play include crypto mining, and the price of various crypto currencies, which influence GPU sales, which influence availability of ABF that is used in the manufacturing process, which influences the ability to produce other non-GPU computer parts. Currently, hot GPUs are going for 150%+ of MSRP.
Currently, ABF is produced by Ajinomoto Fine-Techno Co. who seems to be the sole supplier. If other companies can begin producing ABF, that would help matters. If there is a COVID outbreak around the manufacturing facilities, that will result in longer wait times. That, in turn, depends on the availability of vaccines and rapid and PCR tests, as well as government policies, and social norms, beliefs about doing things for the common good, etc.
These things and more are all interrelated and influence the system as a whole. This makes making predictions extremely difficult. It also makes introducing changes that might help matters very challenging. Sometimes these small changes can result in outsized changes in the system, and sometimes changes in the opposite direction than intended.
Not my area of expertise, just some thoughts.
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