Feels like a punch in a stomach, honestly. Canva announcement below, no official info from Serif yet (didn’t find one, at least): https://www.canva.com/newsroom/news/affinity/
Better than Adobe buying it.
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I guess this means V3 will be a subscription.
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Better than Adobe buying Canva, and then Affinity
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Affinity says not, but we’ll have to wait and see. Affinity was always a “buy (upgrade) each new major version” model anyway. The critical thing will be if there is any drastic change to the total cost of ownership or over-emphasis on Affinity requiring integration with Canva.
It’s Canva now and Canva only does subscriptions and their investors want a return on their investment. I don’t see them keeping the current model long term and that will probably have nothing to do with costs.
Yes, I fear Affinity will be moved to a subscription model. From the FAQ:
The language below opens the door to changing Affinity to a later subscription.
From the FAQ:
Canva’s business model is subscription, are there any plans to change how Affinity is sold?
There are no changes to our current pricing model planned at this time, with all our apps still available as a one-off purchase. Existing Affinity users will be able to continue to use your apps in perpetuity as they were originally purchased – with plenty of free updates to V2 still to look forward to! [emphasis added]
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Well that’s a welcome news for Adobe I guess when Affinity will go into Subscription mode eventually.
Eventually, Affinity as a brand will cease to exist. There’s no point for Canva to keep the Affinity name as it will just confused their users and target market.
I’ll wait for 6 months and decide where to move. I’m disheartened by this and regret my V2 purchase during launch as I wanted to support them.
Spent 5-6 years with a new workflow with the Affinity Suite. Then again, I have 20 years of working on Adobe and dropped it. So I don’t think I’ll have problem moving to another software.
Or go back to Adobe if Canva will just charge us subscription.
Or Adobe will recognize that the merger will represent greater competition.
Given that Adobe’s purchase of Fragma was nixed due to monopoly concerns, it’s pretty unlikely a purchase of Canva would be sanctioned.
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if Canva grew its revenue to $US3 billion [currently $2 billion] by the end of this year, and went public in early 2025, it could easily attract a 15x valuation multiple, which would give those buying in now at $26 billion a 73 per cent gain in just 18 months. - Canva share sale: why Goldman Sachs, Ontario Teachers deal is ‘about $8b short’
So, Canva’s revenue is about $2bn p.a. and they are venture and traditionally capitalised to the tune of about $26bn, having done a new round in January this year. Likely to attempt an IPO in 2025. To do that they need to grow revenue and users, and very fast. This move means they’ve just added all Affinity users and its revenue to their balance sheet but they’ll need to do much more.
My guess is that they won’t want to alienate current Affinity users, and they must be aware that moving to subscription would do that, but I would expect some sort of “Affinity bundled with Canva subscription” offered as an option fairly soon and Canva integrations within Affinity to attempt to drive more Canva subs.
Longer term, I think Affinity will be brought completely into the Canva brand. They’re obviously trying to do an Adobe where users end up renting access to an ecosystem of stock photos and graphics, software and services. If they can keep their subs closer to $10 a month than the $50+ Adobe charges, they might be very successful. It will be interesting to see how Adobe responds.
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I wonder why Affinity sold, I don’t buy the BS “our stars are aligned” - perhaps their business model wasn’t working, and Canva will inject cash, alongside a subscription model, the one with no plans to implement “at this time”.
It feels quite sad.
Serif’s business model was working, given their financials. This report by AFR could be why the owners decided to sell Serif (provided that the estimate is correct and it probably isn’t far off). Most entrepreneurs would be happy with an exit that earned them far less than that.
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This. The enshitification of everything we old dear pursues its course…
Quite honestly, if they folded it into the current Canva sub at the current Canva price I’d pay that. But of course I use this for my job.
Are you saying you’ll wait six months to see if you’ll switch? I still don’t regret my V2 purchase. It was a hell of a deal on software that will probably run for at least several more years.
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I just saw that. I don’t suppose many of us would walk away from it.
I don’t mind subscriptions that much if they cover a lot of digital ground.
I have to put things in perspective. I’m paying media streaming companies an average of 12 dollars per month. Canva+ with Affinity Apps would be worth somewhere between 15-20 monthly spend IMO for a lot of people.
My two cents:
I think the opposite is the reason: they were able to establish a well respected app eco system for photo editing, graphic design and page layout. It has potential for further growth. They were able doing so with quite a small team. Building up on that will need a lot of resources.
There are always the same two options in a case like that:
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Try to continue the success story on your own. You may succeed or you may not. If you fail you stand there with nothing.
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Cash in and sell the company.
Especially in tech, the second option always seems to be the more interesting one in the long run these days.
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